Aces Are Wild

No were not talking about poker. Were talking about the Atlanta Braves starting rotation. Which right now some people are starting to doubt. Personally I may take their side in this debate, as the offense appears to be showing some signs of life and the bullpen is very solid. Yes the offense was shut down by Matt Cain last night, but over all they have been showing signs of improvement. Uggla and Freeman have been hitting the ball extremely well and we’ll let McCann get readjusted to being back in the starting line, then we can make a final judgement call.

For the first half of the season the starting rotation carried this team. They were arguably the best rotation in all of baseball, lead by ace pitcher Jair Jurrjens. I am a firm believer that every team needs an ace. And by ace I don’t necessarily mean a top 5 pitcher in all of baseball. Obviously there are only so many “great” pitchers available for the taking. When I use the word ace, I am referring to a clear cut #1 starter in your rotation. Not 2 or 3 guys that are decent and could probably pitch in a big game down the stretch. Probably won’t get it done come playoff time. By the end of Sept, if not before you need to have all of your roles established. This includes having your #1 starter defined. You only get one shot at playing game 1 in each series. The ever so crucial game 1 dictates the out come quite often. It’s your first chance to jump out in front of the opposing team and make a statement. It’s a game you want your ace on the mound for. Well what if you don’t have a clear cut ace? Well I firmly believe that this leads to confusion and hesitant decision making when determining your rotation in October. You can’t afford to have a wait and see type attitude. Or a “play it by ear” approach.

So that leads me to my next question. Do the Braves have a clear cut ace? The kind of pitcher who can stop a losing streak or take the mound in game 1 of the World Series? If this Braves team lives up to it’s potential, the potential that we all see in this team then they will be forced to put a guy out there in either game 1 of the NLCS or possilby game 1 of the World Series. Who should they turn to?

If we had asked ourselves this same question just 30 days prior to this we would have come to an immediate conclusion. Jair Jurrjens is our ace. He’s the guy we want on the mound come October. With an outstanding ERA of just 1.89 at the All Star break I don’t think anyone would have argued or even debated the fact that Jurrjens was the best pitcher on this staff. Now, do we still feel the same way? I’m not so sure. I’m not one to jump on and off band wagons but to be quite honest Jurrjens doesn’t look like the same pitcher. It’s not just that he’s not getting the same types of results but it appears that his confidence his way down. He’s not his spots and he’s just not able to get big outs in crucial situations. He looks like a completely different guy in the second half of the season.

Jurrjens as I’ve mentioned in prior articles is not a guy who likes to pitch hurt. He likes to be healthy when he takes the mound, he needs to be healthy to make good things happen. We’ve seen the difference between a healthy Jurrjens and an injury plagued Jurrjens. They are as different as night and day. It’s not easy to play hurt, I’m not saying it is. But when you think of some of the game’s best pitchers, they are willing to go out there and lay it all on the line. Is Jurrjens willing to do that? Is he a big game pitcher? I’m not sold on this idea.

In the second half of the season Jurrjens has seen his ERA jump from 1.87 all the way up to 2.84. I’m not saying 2.84 is a horrible ERA, just like I’m not saying his 12-5 record isn’t respectable. None of those statements would be accurate. He has a very strong record and a solid ERA. The only thing I’m pointing out is the massive jump up. His ERA is up almost a full run since the All Star break and he’s only made 5 starts. Not to mention if he hadn’t had a stellar outing against Pittsburgh on the 27th of July where he went 7 strong innings only allowing 1 earned run, his ERA would really be in the gutter. That was his only decent start since the All Star break.

This article is not intended to bash Jair Jurrjens. That’s not my intention, in fact Jurrjens is probably one of my favorite players on this Braves team. I think he wants to win badly, he wants to be that ace pitcher. He’s very young and has great stuff. The future could still be very bright for Mr. Jurrjens. My job as a writer is to pose questions. And this is my question to you. Could Tim Hudson be the ace of this staff as we head down the stretch run? Because I think he can.

Hudson is 4-1 in his 7 starts since the All Star break. He’s gone at least 7 innings in all of those starts and his ERA has dropped from 3.44 down to 3.13. To be a premier pitcher in this league I believe you need to have an ERA of under 3.00. That to me shows dominance and Hudson is nearing that level right now.

Let’s put it this way. His worst start since the All Star break was against the Pirates. He went 7.0 innings. Gave up 5 hits and allowed 3 runs. He got tagged for the loss  in that game, his only loss since the break. If that’s your worst start of the 2nd half then you should be pretty proud of yourself Tim Hudson.

The Braves as a team are 5-2 in the starts Hudson has made in the 2nd half. The 2 starts that Hudson wasn’t able to win, the Braves lost those games 3-2 and 3-1 respectively. Not exactly the best run support for Hudson but he still managed to keep them in the game. Hudson also has a fair amount of playoff experience. He’s been to the playoffs 4 times with Oakland and 3 times with Atlanta. He’s appeared in 10 playoff games and has made 9 post season starts. He holds a 1-3 career record with a respectable 3.46era. Now I will admit that Hudson has never pitched past the Divisional Round. So I can’t say he’s a sure bet on the mound in Game 1 of the World Series but some experience is there. Jurrjens, who I know is 11 years younger then Hudson has never pitched under the bright lights of October. He was absent during last years playoff series against the Giants. Hudson however was present during last years battle with the Giants and pitched a stellar game for Atlanta. He went 7 full innings allowing just 1 earned run. If you remember he was the game 3 pitcher who was locked in that duel with Sanchez and was not helped in any way by Brooks Conrad’s lack of fielding ability.

I’m not trying to be a band wagon jumper. I’m not jumping on Hudson because he’s the “hot” pitcher right now. I can however see Tim Hudson being the game 1 starter in the playoffs. I think Fredi likes his experience and right now he is the best pitcher we have. If you were to choose one Braves pitcher to take the mound in a game that decided the fate of this planet, wouldn’t you pick Tim Hudson? I know I would.

By: Bob McVinua

 

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